Calibration of Decision-Based Crowd-Behaviour Model

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17815/CD.2024.155

Keywords:

Crowd-behaviour, Calibration, Hypothesis testing, Decision-based model

Abstract

Various methods of calibration are used depending on the model type, application, and individual preferences. While there is no universally applicable method, statistical techniques became popular in recent decades. Introduced calibration concept consists of separate calibration episodes to avoid choosing only a few metrics to describe the whole system and a high computational time increasing exponentially with the number of parameters. These episodes are designed to be separated from each other and to cover one type of pedestrian behaviour captured by some model parameters. The design of the calibration quantities; estimate of the needed simulation time to get stationary results; and the number of iterations by Chebyshev's inequality influencing the quality of the results are discussed. Furthermore, hypothesis testing (James' test) is used to compare the model and experimental data. This calibration process can be applied for any pedestrian model; this paper deals with its application on the crowd-behaviour phase in the author's decision based model.

References

Gödel, M., Bode, N., Köster, G., Bungartz, H.J.: Bayesian inference methods to calibrate crowd dynamics models for safety applications. Safety science 147, 105586 (2022). doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2021.105586

Toledo, T., Koutsopoulos, H.N.: Statistical validation of traffic simulation models. Transportation Research Record 1876(1), 142-150 (2004). doi:10.3141/1876-15

Schadschneider, A., Chraibi, M., Seyfried, A., Tordeux, A., Zhang, J.: Pedestrian dynamics: From empirical results to modeling. In: Crowd Dynamics, Volume 1, pp. 63-102. Springer (2018). doi:10.1007/978-3-030-05129-7

Campanella, M., Hoogendoorn, S., Daamen, W.: Quantitative and qualitative validation procedure for general use of pedestrian models. In: Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2012, pp. 891-905. Springer (2014). doi:10.1007/978-3-319-02447-9

Bode, N.W., Ronchi, E.: Statistical model fitting and model selection in pedestrian dynamics research. Collective Dynamics 4, 1-32 (2019). doi:10.17815/CD.2019.20

Lovreglio, R., Ronchi, E., Nilsson, D.: Calibrating floor field cellular automaton models for pedestrian dynamics by using likelihood function optimization. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 438, 308-320 (2015). doi:10.1016/j.physa.2015.06.040

Ko, M., Kim, T., Sohn, K.: Calibrating a social-force-based pedestrian walking model based on maximum likelihood estimation. Transportation 40(1), 91-107 (2013). doi:10.1007/s11116-012-9411-z

Sparnaaij, M., Duives, D.C., Knoop, V.L., Hoogendoorn, S.P.: Multiobjective calibration framework for pedestrian simulation models: A study on the effect of movement base cases, metrics, and density levels. Journal of Advanced Transportation 2019 (2019). doi:10.1155/2019/5874085

Ronchi, E., Kuligowski, E.D., Reneke, P.A., Peacock, R.D., Nilsson, D.: The process of verification and validation of building fire evacuation models (2013). URL http://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/technicalnotes/NIST.TN.1822.pdf

Bukáček, M., Hrabák, P., Krbálek, M.: Microscopic travel-time analysis of bottleneck experiments. Transportmetrica A: transport science 14(5-6), 375-391 (2018). doi:10.1080/23249935.2017.1419423

Cheng, L., Yarlagadda, R., Fookes, C., Yarlagadda, P.K.: A review of pedestrian group dynamics and methodologies in modelling pedestrian group behaviours. World 1(1), 002-013 (2014)

Kang, W., Han, Y.: A simple and realistic pedestrian model for crowd simulation and application. Preprint (2017). doi:10.48550/arXiv.1708.03080

Martinez-Gil, F., Lozano, M., García-Fernández, I., Fernández, F.: Modeling, evaluation, and scale on artificial pedestrians: a literature review. ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR) 50(5), 72 (2017). doi:10.1145/3117808

Vacková, J., Bukáček, M.: Calibration of pedestrian sizes in decision-based modelling. In: The Fire and Evacuation Modeling Technical Conference. FEMTC (2022)

Vacková, J., Bukáček, M.: Ruling principles for decision-based pedestrian model. In: Stochastic and Physical Monitoring Systems 2019. SPMS (2019)

Vacková, J., Bukáček, M.: Social and physical pedestrian sizes and their impact on the decision-based modelling. In: The Fire and Evacuation Modeling Technical Conference. FEMTC (2020). URL https://files.thunderheadeng.com/femtc/2020_d3-11-vackova-paper.pdf

Lehmann, E., Romano, J.: Testing statistical hypotheses. MR2135927 (2005). doi:10.1007/978-3-030-70578-7

James, G.S.: Tests of linear hypotheses in univariate and multivariate analysis when the ratios of the population variances are unknown. Biometrika 41(1/2), 19-43 (1954). URL http://www.jstor.org/stable/2333003

Seber, G.A.: Multivariate observations. John Wiley & Sons (2009)

Dense crowd behaviour

Downloads

Published

17.05.2024

How to Cite

Vacková, J., & Bukáček, M. (2024). Calibration of Decision-Based Crowd-Behaviour Model. Collective Dynamics, 9, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.17815/CD.2024.155

Issue

Section

Special Issue of Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics 2023