Tsunami evacuation facility choice behavior model in flat area and rias area considering possibility to remain at home

Hiroyuki Yoshihara, Tatsuya Kishimoto


The tsunami associated with the Great East Japan Earthquake that occurred on March 11, 2011 caused enormous damage to the coast of the Pacific Ocean. Since the occurrence of the Great Earthquake, it is urgent to develop tsunami evacuation countermeasures against the great tsunamis caused by the large earthquake that is expected to occur in the future in the country and coastal municipalities. In this study, we used logit model to estimate each parameters about the relationship between evacuees and buildings in flat area and rias area by using the evacuation behavior survey data of the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. The estimated results show that “whether the evacuation destination is home or not” is important when people choose the tsunami evacuation destination. Moreover, by comparing the moving in flat area and in rias area the difference between them becomes clear. By using these models, it enables to estimate the home selection probability in flat area and rias area.


tsunami; evacuation behavior; tsunami evacuation facility; logit model

Full Text:



T. Yamada, M. Sasaki, T. Kishimoto, “The sphere of evacuation facility based on the facility choice behavior model”, AIJ J. Technol., vol. 22, no. 51, pp. 825-830, 2016

T. Isagawa, “Residents’ Attitude towards Tsunami Evacuation after the Great East Japan Earthquake Questionnaire surveys before and after the earthquake at Onjuku, Chiba prefecture which experienced small tsunami”, Institude Social Safety Science, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 263-277, 2012

H. Muurakami, “A study on fatality and factors affecting evacuation delay in Natori City hit by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami”, Journal of social safety science , vol. 24, pp. 101-110

T. Yamada, T. Kishimoto, “Choice behavior model of refuge building selection during a tsunami coastal areas”, J. Archit. Plann., AIJ, vol. 80, no. 707, pp. 125-133, 2015

R. Kimura, H. Hayashi, S. Tatsuki, K. Tamura, “Psychologically difined life reconstruction processes of disaster victims in the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake”, Journal of social safety science, vol. 6, pp. 241-250, 2004

R. Alvarez, M. Camacho, G. Perez-Quiros, “Aggregate versus disaggregate information in dynamic factor models”, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 32, no. 3, pp. 680-694, 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17815/CD.2020.71

Copyright (c) 2020 Hiroyuki Yoshihara, Tatsuya Kishimoto

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.