Multiscale Pedestrian Dynamics and Infection Spread Model for Policy Analysis

Sirish Namilae, Pierrot Derjany, Dahai Liu, Anuj Mubayi, Ashok Srinivasan

Abstract


In this paper, we present a formulation for a multiscale model combining a social force based pedestrian movement including collision avoidance and a stochastic infection dynamics framework to evaluate the spread of multiple infectious diseases during air travel. We apply the multiscale model to evaluate pedestrian movement strategies that can reduce infection spread during air travel. The results are presented for airport lounge and airplane boarding and deplaning. Use of parallel computing to evaluate the vast parameter space created due to stochasticity and discretionary pedestrian behavior is addressed.

Keywords


pedestrian dynamics; infectious disease spread; air travel

Full Text:

PDF

References


M.R. Moser,T.R. Bender, H.S.Margolis, G.R. Noble, A.P. Kendal, and D.G. Ritter, An outbreak of influenza aboard a commercial airliner. American Journal of Epidemiology, 110, (1), 1979, pp.1–6.

S.J. Olsen, H.L.Chang, T.Y. Cheung, A.F.Y. Tang, T.L. Fisk, S.P.L.Ooi, and J. Lando, Transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome on aircraft. New England Journal of Medicine, Vol. 349, No.25, 2003, pp. 2416–2422.

K. Nelson, K. Marienau, C. Schembri and S. Redd, 2013. Measles transmission during air travel, United States, December 1, 2008–December 31. Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease, Vol. 11, No.2, 2011, pp. 81–89.

M.A. Widdowson, R. Glass, S. Monroe, R.S. Beard, J.W. Bateman, P. Lurie, and C. Johnson, Probable transmission of norovirus on an airplane. Jama, Vol. 293, No.15, 2005, pp. 1855–1860.

S. Namilae, A. Srinivasan, A. Mubayi, M. Scotch and R. Pahle , Self-propelled pedestrian dynamics model: Application to passenger movement and infection propagation in airplanes, Physica A Vol. 465, 2017, 248–260

S Namilae, P Derjany, A. Mubayi, M. Scotch and A. Srinivasan, Multiscale Model For Infection Dynamics During Air Travel. Physical review E Vol 95, (2017), 052320

D. Helbing, and P. Molnár, Social force model for pedestrian dynamics, Physical Review E, vol. 51, Jan. 1995, pp. 4282–4286.

J. Zębala, P. Ciępka, and A. Reza, Pedestrian acceleration and speeds. Problems of Forensic Sciences, Vol.91, 2012, pp. 227-234.

J.K. Gupta, C.H. Lin and Q Chen, Flow dynamics and characterization of a cough, Indoor Air, vol. 19, 2009, pp. 517–525.

S.C. Paquette.et al Influenza Transmission in the Mother-Infant Dyad Leads to Severe Disease, Mammary Gland Infection, and Pathogenesis by Regulating Host Responses, PLOS Pathogens, vol. 11, Aug. 2015.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.17815/CD.2020.86

Copyright (c) 2020 Sirish Namilae, Pierrot Derjany, Dahai Liu, Anuj Mubayi, Ashok Srinivasan

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.